Across H1, the EUR/USD continued to traded in a tight, roughly 700-pip range under 1.10; the price fluctuation was so limited that entirety of the Q2 range falls within the high-low range of each of the previous two quarters, one of the smallest seen since the inception in 1999. Will that be the case in H2 also? Here you can find the most recent EUR/USD forecast and price predictions by market experts.
For most of the past year or so, investors and analysts were mostly focused on guessing the timing and size of the Federal Reserve's cutting cycle, identifying that as the main driver for a broad-based dollar decline. Since the end of May, political factors have taken a central role, making the link between a more dovish Fed pricing and a weaker dollar less stable.
Experts think foreign exchange investors must consider more. And it's not just about politics in the US and the eurozone. It's also about the underlying central bank and economic fundamental stories that can make or break FX rallies in the many risk-on/dollar-off windows they expect to see this summer.
In the end, a lot will depend on how the economic data changes and how the central bankers in question behave, but the latest Euro to Dollar forecasts more interest rate cuts from the ECB than the Fed. Along with updated EUR/USD price predictions and speculations of pair approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning.
Key Euro to Dollar (Eur/Usd) Forecast & Price Predictions
- Euro to Dollar forecast Q3 2024: Analysts believe any US-macro-driven rally close to 1.10 (MA 200) – a point that repeatedly blocked advances in 2023, will offer opportunities for strategic EUR/USD selling this quarter.
- Euro to Dollar forecast 2024: Political developments in the eurozone and US, as well as easing cycles from other central banks, should get in the way of a broad-based dollar decline. More specifically, experts forecast the euro to dollar rate may remain trapped around 1.08 by the end of the year.
- EurUsd price prediction for the next 5 years: the pair is undervalued in real terms according to ING and based on the interest rate projections, EurUsd should trade above 1.20 in the next years.
With CAPEX.com you can trade Eur/Usd with tight spreads using our award-winning trading platform and mobile apps.
Euro to Dollar (EurUsd) Forecast H2 2024 – Fundamental
While the U.S. Federal Reserve remains on hold for now, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered rates by 25 basis points on June 6.
Euro forecast
According to the latest forex forecasts for H2 2024, if you are searching for a star performer, look elsewhere than the euro. Aside from political uncertainty, eurozone activity surveys are starting to lose steam; and an ECB that relies on its own (optimistic) inflation projections can still cut twice in 2024.
September rate cut not a done deal
One might have thought EUR/USD could have done a little better on the view that a September ECB rate cut was now less likely. As discussed in our previous Euro to Dollar forecast update in June, the ECB has made it clear that there is no forward guidance and sticky services inflation now casts doubt on whether the ECB can indeed cut interest rates both in September and December.
Yet EUR/USD has softened a little. Perhaps this is a function of a slightly less optimistic for world growth, where the ECB has now switched its short-term activity assessment to the downside and China's third plenum has failed to deliver on (unrealistic) expectations of fresh stimulus.
It is important to remember that this is not yet a typical rate-cutting cycle in the eurozone. In the past, easing cycles had always been triggered by recessions or crises. Fortunately, neither of these is currently the case. Therefore, any further rate cuts will not be on autopilot. In fact, the ECB must find a balance between potential reputational damage and rising concerns about an overly optimistic inflation forecast.
Lower energy prices have enabled the eurozone economy to return to growth and the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates. We expect a return to potential growth by 2025, with inflation at 2% by mid-year.
This would permit the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the deposit rate bottoms out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.
ECB forecasted to cut until 2.5%
S&P Global Ratings expects GDP growth to accelerate from 0.7% this year to 1.4% next year, as lower commodities prices, especially energy prices, allow terms of trade to rebalance, disinflation to continue, and real incomes to recover.
Barring any significant new shock, the 2% inflation target seems to be in reach and likely to occur by mid-2025, as a rebound in productivity, moderation in profit margins, and slower wage growth will bring core inflation down further.
They expect a return to potential growth by 2025, with inflation at 2% by mid-year. This would permit the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the deposit rate bottoms out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.
French politics fails to dent the euro
The results of the most recent election are reflected in the most recent developments in French politics. In parliament, no party can get a majority, even when it comes to choosing the powerful speaker of the house. A caretaker administration, presided over primarily by members of President Macron's party, is now in place. As a result, risks to France's fiscal position have not increased, but efforts to reduce the country's more than 5% budget deficit are still far off.
Because of this, the spread between French and German government bonds is consistently trading in the 65–70 bps range, which is wider than the 45–50 bps levels that were common before to President Macron calling for early elections but narrower than the 85–90 bps peak earlier this summer. In summary, it does not appear that the euro currently necessitates a significant political risk premium.
USD Forecast
Amid many cross-currents, the dollar has softened back to its weakest levels since March. That looks largely down to this month’s 20bp drop in short-dated US rates that put the Federal Reserve on the path back to rate cuts, but perhaps also down to some confusion about what a possible Trump presidency means for the dollar.
The US dollar is likely to drift lower, driven by softer economic data which appears to be paving the way for a rate cut later this year. However, a strong economy means the US public may have to wait longer than other developed countries before it can start to lower interest rates.
Over the next three months, the dollar is forecasted to ease, but the journey is likely to be choppy due to a robust inflation outlook from the Fed whereby it anticipates only reaching the 2% target in 2026.
Fiscal policy, a looser under a Trump administration
Perhaps the biggest story this quarter, however, is what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for Eur/Usd. It's widely agreed upon that a Trump government will likely implement looser fiscal policy, a steeper US yield curve, and stronger currency. The foreign exchange aspect remains uncertain and has been further complicated in the beginning of the quarter by former President Trump's remarks to Bloomberg, whereby he disparaged the weak Japanese yen and Chinese yuan.
The interview served as a reminder that the US Treasury under Trump's time in office branded China a currency manipulator, even though the formal criteria had not been fulfilled. This week's Bloomberg interview has therefore raised the prospect that a victory for Trump in November could re-introduce the wild card of weak dollar policy from the White House.
Growth, Inflation, and the Labour Market – A Real Mixed Bag
Economic growth is moderating but still robust, disinflation is back on track, and the job market shows small signs of easing. The Fed is hopeful that the strong labour market will usher in a soft landing when it does eventually decide to cut rates with Q3 potentially marking the start of the rate cutting cycle if the data allows (September). Should growth deteriorate alongside the continued progress in inflation, US shorter-term yields have room to fall further and could weigh on the dollar.
At the centre of the data will be inflation which declined in the first half of the year despite a spate of troubling core CPI prints (month-on-month) that weighed on Fed officials’ confidence of reaching 2% in a timeous manner. Thanks to improved data in April and May, the Fed will likely look for more encouraging signs in the coming months in the hope to build the necessary confidence to finally cut interest rates once or even twice this year.
Fed to cut rates twice this year
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, in September and December, as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation, according to a growing majority of economists in a Reuters poll.
Declining price pressures over the past few months and recent signs of labor market weakness gave several members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "greater confidence" inflation will return to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal without a significant economic slowdown.
Markets grabbed that opportunity to price in two to three rate reductions this year. While all 100 economists in the July 17-23 Reuters poll said the Fed will keep rates unchanged on July 31, more than 80% - 82 of 100 - forecast the first 25-basis-point cut would come in September, pushing the federal funds rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range.
The Fed will cut rates once in each quarter through 2025, taking the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of 2025, according to median forecasts in the survey.
Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on EUR/USD
EUR/USD has seen broadly divergent returns both in the year before and year after the first Fed rate cut of a new easing cycle:
The 1980s cycles (1982, 1984, 1989) featured big EUR/USD drops (7%+) in the year before the Fed cut interest rates.
Returns heading into the first Fed rate cut of an easing cycle have generally been strong over the past quarter-century, varying from -2% (2019) to +12% (2001)
EUR/USD returns in the year after the Fed starts cutting rates have varied from +17% (1989) to -4% (1995 and 2001)
On average, EUR/USD has fallen -1% in the year before the Fed starts cutting interest rates and risen 3% in the year after.
Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar; if anything, the historical track record shows a modest bullish trend in the greenback, especially in the six months before and six months after the Fed starts easing policy.
How likely is the Euro to Dollar parity forecast?
What then would be required to restore parity between EUR and USD? ING believe that more divergence in Fed-ECB policy can be sufficient, but euro is no longer under the kind of fundamental pressure that the energy crisis placed on its longer-term fair value, we may need to see the 2-year EUR/USD swap rate widening to more than the -175bp low.
To get EUR/USD close to 1.00, markets would have to eliminate all Fed easing bets for this year while keeping those for the ECB between 75 and 100 basis points. Given the extraordinary strength of US data and the ongoing upward revision of Fed rate forecasts, this is not unfeasible.
EurUsd Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has exhibited a broad, choppy downtrend for 2024, moving back and forth in a reactive fashion as rate cut projections were clawed back significantly in the US and to a lesser degree for the ECB, hence the pair favouring the downside.
In Q3, the euro may recover to some degree but remains fraught with uncertainty as French election concerns and Fed easing policy collide. Overall, the Fed story is expected to dominate even if the euro fails to exhibit broad strength when compared to G7 currencies.
EUR/USD Forecast - Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows Q2 closing around 0.0724, a level that provided support in late 2022 and February 2023. A significant upward move from here would be challenging and would likely require improved US conditions that more clearly indicate a potential September rate cut.
For EUR/USD, a key resistance level lies just below the psychological 1.1000 mark, at 1.0929 – a point that repeatedly blocked advances in 2023. In extreme scenarios, 1.1033 could come into play, having capped weekly gains more recently. On the downside, 1.0600 is crucial if periphery bond spreads widen dramatically, with 1.0516 potentially becoming relevant thereafter.
EUR/USD Forecast - Daily Chart
The daily chart provides a more granular look at the pair which tended to trade within a broad range for the majority of the year. Given the many moving parts surrounding the euro’s value, signals of an obvious directional move appear to be absent, apart from the negative divergence that has been playing out since the early June swing high.
The bearish price action was held up at 1.0700 and has headed higher since. The most immediate levels to break include the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.0795/1.0800 zone. A third potential target level/zone appears at channel resistance with a midpoint at 1.0950. Downside levels which will come into play very quickly if uncertainty in France ticks up a few notches, include 1.0600 and 1.0516 in an extreme case as mentioned above in this technical Euro to Dollar forecast for H2 2024.
How do analysts see the market moving in the coming months and years? Below, we look at some of the latest projections.
Euro to Dollar Price Predictions 2024
Here we look at the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) forecast for 2024, including comments from highly rated FX strategists.
Euro To Dollar Forecast End-2024: 1.14 At BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas said that EURUSD has underperformed their expectations over the past month following the ECB's September meeting, in its October edition of Markets 360. Additionally, stated that "The current account has normalized and is now in a comfortable surplus – implying that the EUR will be more resilient as global growth slows – and portfolio flows show that this surplus is not being recycled abroad, as has typically been the case in the past."
The bank, however, warned that there were risks of higher energy prices on Europe's single currency in the near term as energy shocks induced by supply constraints will lead to weaker terms of trade, weighing on the Euro.
However, BNP Paribas mentioned that the prospect of the eventual narrowing in the USD-EUR rate differential and structural arguments keep the bank confident in their medium-term expectation of a rise in the EUR, and they keep their initial EURUSD forecast for the end of 2024 at 1.15.
Bullish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024
Recently, ING updated their Euro to Dollar forecast to trade above 1.10 later this year and early next.
The Dutch bank still see the ECB cutting rates at the June meeting. However, the combination of an even further weakening euro exchange rate, geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices could bring back inflation headaches and limit the ECB’s room for maneuver.
ING's core view remains that the Fed will cut rates at one point this year as the US consumer story ultimately softens and inflation reverts to a more stable downward trend.
In line with their call for 75bp of easing by the Fed in 2024, they see EUR/USD as more likely to trade in the upper-half of the 1.05/1.10 range rather than in the lower-half of 1.00/1.05.
Bearish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2024 from Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley provides its 2024 outlook for major currency pairs, including EUR/USD. The bank's forecast is shaped by expectations of technical recessions in the eurozone,
The bank forecast the eurozone to enter technical recessions, prompting their central banks to start cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024. The anticipated weak growth and falling rates are expected to weigh on the EUR.
The EUR/USD is forecasted to return to parity (1.00) by Q1 2024 and remain around that level for most of the year.
Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction from Bank of America
Bank of America's 2024 Euro to Dollar forecasts confirm it is more bearish on the U.S. Dollar than the consensus, with analysts saying Federal Reserve interest rate cuts "matter more for the market" than cuts at other central banks.
Bank of America (BofA) forecasts the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EURUSD) to clear the 1.10 level over the coming months and rise toward its fair value. However, analysts caution this does not necessarily mean "the Euro will be supported on its own merits."
The coming USD weakness will be premised on expectations that U.S. economic growth will "land" and create a smaller outperformance gap for the U.S. versus others in a "U.S. recoupling".
Bullish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts forecast the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) to strengthen to 1.12 by June 2024 before fading to 1.08 by March 2025.
The bank continues to expect the US economy to slide into recession in 2024 and the Fed to cut its key interest rate by a total of 150 bps in response. However, as the market still seems confident that the US economy will manage a ‘soft landing’, they forecast the EUR/USD pair to rise to around 1.12.
Bearish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2024 from Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs doubts that US yields will decline further in the short term and added; “for FX in particular, we still think it will be hard to erode much more of the Dollar’s appeal at this stage.”
Goldman also expects that the US economy will be resilient. In part this reflects the fact that the US household sector is less sensitive to higher interest rates due to the impact of long-term mortgage fixes. It also considers that European economies are more sensitive to higher interest rates and the dollar is liable to strengthen further if the US economy continues to out-perform.
Goldman notes that the Euro-Zone inflation is declining sharply. Although markets are expecting ECB rate cuts in 2024, Goldman notes that short-term pricing is still firm. It considers any adjustment in these expectations on recession risks would be likely to trigger notable Euro losses.
Energy prices will be important for the Euro with the currency in a better position if energy prices decline while strong upward pressure on prices would tend to undermine the Euro.
Overall, Goldman expects that the Euro will struggle during 2024 and forecasts EUR/USD will be held at 1.06 on a 6-month view.
Bullish Euro to Dollar Price Prediction 2024 from Scotiabank
FX Strategists at Scotiabank commented, "The charts suggest the EUR’s rally is starting to struggle above 1.10, as was the case in late November when the spot topped out at 1.1017. Intraday price action does look potentially soft.
According to Scotiabank consolidation is likely to remain the near-term theme: “Underlying trend dynamics remain bullish, however, and still suggest limited scope for EUR weakness and ongoing pressure for EUR gains to extend. Above 1.0960 targets 1.11.”
On the downside; “Support is 1.0870/1.0875; loss of support here could see corrective EUR losses towards 1.0775.”
Scotiabank forecasts the EUR will be able to push on to 1.11/1.12 in the next few weeks.
Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction from Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole forecasts only very gradual Euro gains; “We expect the Fed to cut rates in 2024 and 2025. Yet, slow growth outside the US and other major central banks starting easing cycles as well will limit the USD fall. EUR-USD will likely rise to 1.13 at end-2024 and will probably hit 1.15 only in late 2025.”
Bearish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo takes a negative stance on the European outlook, considering that sentiment surveys for both economies have softened sharply in recent months, and European underperformance relative to the US should weigh on both currencies.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also signaled that policy rates have likely reached their peak, thus lessening interest rate support for their respective currencies, commented the US bank.
The bank forecast a softer Euro through early 2024, and a EUR/USD price prediction around 1.0200.
Bearish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from ANZ
ANZ expects further trouble for the Euro given the increase in energy prices.
According to the bank, rising commodity prices if sustained will add another blow to the EA’s economy. As net importers of energy, higher energy prices will impact the EA’s balance of payments negatively. While they think this will add to downside pressure on the EUR, ANZ forecast is unlikely for EUR/USD to test last year’s low of 0.95, as local storage facilities are better stocked for Europe’s coming winter.
Bearish Euro To Dollar Forecast from SocGen
According to investment bank SocGen, the fundamentals are supporting the dollar; The Treasury is selling bonds, yields are rising, and money is being sucked into the USD, comfortably financing the current account deficit – a fiscal/monetary policy mix that is designed to help the Dollar overshoot to the upside and there’s further to go.
SocGen considers that the US Dollar will maintain its market dominance in the short-term outlook, and forecasts EUR/USD heading toward parity.
Other Euro to Dollar price predictions for 2024
Amundi Asset Management still forecasts EUR/USD gains to 1.18 for mid-2024.
Danske Bank forecasts that EUR/USD will be resilient in the short term, but continue to expect an underlying grind lower with the pair at 1.03 in 12 months.
EurUsd price predictions based on AI
Here are the July 2024 EurUsd price predictions from the most popular AI-based sources.
Wallet Investor
Algorithm-based website Wallet Investor’s EUR/USD forecast the pair to close 2024 slightly below 1.07, with a maximum rate of 1.09.
In a longer-term projection, Wallet Investor’s EUR/USD forecast for 2025 had the pair potentially reaching a high of 1.06 and close the year at slightly above 1.03.
The EurUsd forecast for the next 5 years is to trade below parity at 0.90-0.95, according to this algorithm website.Long Forecast
As of the beginning of Q3, the service’s EUR/USD forecast for 2024 expected the pair to close the year at 1.06 with a 1.08 high. Long Forecast’s EUR/USD price prediction for 2025 had the pair potentially reaching a maximum price of 1.09. The EurUsd forecast for the next 5 years is to trade around parity according to this algorithm website.
Trading Economics
The EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.06 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, the agency’s EUR/USD forecast for the next 12 months is 1.03.
AI Pickup
The EUR/USD price prediction for 2024 from AI Pickup is bearish – the website saw the pair averaging a rate of 1.06, with a low of 1.04 and a high of 1.07. The following years, however, could see a rise to an average of 1.10-1.20. The platform’s EUR/USD forecast for 2030 and the next 10 years saw the pair trading at 1.21.
What Drives the Euro / US Dollar Currency Pair
The EUR/USD trend depends on what stage of the cycle the global economy is at. During a recession, the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, increases. As a result, the eurodollar goes down.
During a recovery from a recession, investors are not that focused on preserving money. Retail investors search for ways to multiply the deposit. At this stage, the fundamentals driving the EUR/USD currency pair are the GDP growth rates and the monetary policy of central banks.
A strong economy is a strong currency. The rapid rebound of GDP after the recession is a reason to buy securities of the country. In particular, the belief that the US economy will fully recover from the 2020 recession in the second quarter of 2021 and exceed its potential level in 2022 contributed to the S&P 500 rally by 18% from January to early August. As a result of the capital inflow into the US stock market, the US dollar was strengthened.
The GDP rate is a reliable indicator but, unfortunately, lagging. The GDP report is published a month or month and a half after the end of the quarter. Therefore, it is very difficult to determine whose economy is growing faster at a particular time, which doesn’t provide a clear picture of the current economic situation to investors. That is why forex traders have to monitor some leading macroeconomic indicators, such as the US and Eurozone PMIs.
The more the economy heats, the more likely the central bank to phase out the quantitative easing program and hike the interest rates. As a result, the assets denominated in the local currency grow more attractively. That is why the US dollar is currently strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
To understand the Fed’s intentions, one should track such indicators as inflation and unemployment rate. When these indicators reach the thresholds set by the Fed, the central bank starts scaling back monetary stimulus. In this case, the greenback will grow in value.
Speeches of central bank representatives are important in forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. The officials’ comments give a clue on how the central banks’ policies could change, and investors could develop trading strategies based on this.
EUR/USD Trading Tips
- A necessary condition to look for buy opportunities in the long term is the sync trends in the global economy. If the US GDP features robust growth, but China and the euro area face problems, look for sell opportunities.
- Monitor the global financial markets. If the S&P 500 and oil are rallying up simultaneously, it may be a reason to buy the Euro versus US Dollar. If the stock index is growing and the black stuff is falling in value, or both financial assets are depreciating, it is relevant to sell the EURUSD.
- Study the history of the financial asset’s quotes. An example that took place in the past may emerge in the future as a potential EUR/USD price movement.
- Use technical indicators in trading the EUR/USD to determine the current market state and key support/resistance levels. If the Moving Averages often cross the EURUSD chart, the market is trading flat. If the price chart is above the EMA, the trend is bullish; if the price is below the indicator, the underlying trend is bearish.
- Use Japanese chart patterns and western chart patterns like head and shoulders, double top and bottom, or triangles to identify entry and exit points.
- Do not try to use all popular trading strategies; you’d better find the one that suits you best.
- Always observe the rules of your online trading system.
EUR/USD price history
In the beginning, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading below parity. However, starting from 2002, the euro has never been below $1. The euro-dollar all-time low is 0.82; the record high is close to 1.604.
In 2020, the global economy faced a recession, which lasted for only two months. Because of the panic in financial markets, the demand for greenback sharply increased. As a result, the EURUSD dropped to a level of 1.064, the lowest since April 2017.
Central banks launched colossal monetary incentives of trillions of dollars to support their economies. The Fed was even called crazy because of a sharp federal funds rate cut from 1.75% to 0 and the start of the Quantitative Easing at a monthly pace of $120 billion. The Federal Reserve balance sheet was growing rapidly, approaching $9 trillion, and the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. In particular, the euro, from January to March, was almost 16% up and reached $1.234.
In late 2020, the euro was expected to be trading up. Many banks suggested the EURUSD should have exceeded 1.25 in 2021. Some aggressive bulls expected the euro around $1.3. In reality, things turned out to be different. Due to the slow vaccination in the EU, which turned into new lockdowns and a double recession, the euro collapsed to 1.1705.
Thanks to vaccines, investors became reassured in the global economic recovery. Furthermore, the EURUSD buyers were again encouraged to invest in the Euro Dollar by a successful vaccination campaign in the EU and the Fed’s unwillingness to recognize a surge in US inflation. The pair was up to 1.226 in late May. Bulls again were aiming at 1.25, but the FOMC June projection broke the uptrend again. The Fed started talking about a potential federal funds rate hike in 2022, which encouraged investors to buy the US dollar.
After falling from 1.2275 at the start of 2021, EUR/USD started 2022 at 1.1375. The price rose to a high of 1.1495 in early February before steadily dropping to a low of 1.0380 on May 13 – a level last seen in January 2017.
From that low point, the share price rose to 1.0790 at the start of June before taking another leg lower to 1.04.
The pair briefly breached parity on 13 July, as markets reacted to US inflation figures. That was followed by an immediate rebound that sent EUR/USD back above 1.0100.
As of 15 July 2022, the pair has fallen over 12% year-to-date to trade around the 1.00 level.
EUR/USD began 2022 at $1.1375, down from $1.2275 at the beginning of 2021. Early in February, the price of the pair reached a high of $1.1495 before progressively declining to a low of $1.0380 on May 13 - a level last reached in January 2017.
The pair fell below $0.99 on September 5 for the first time in 20 years as a result of Russia shutting down its main gas pipeline to the EU, severely jeopardizing the euro zone's economic prospects.
Midway through December, the EUR/USD traded back up to around the $1.06 level due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields. The ECB increased interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) as anticipated on December 15, reiterating that more hikes will follow, and outlining plans for quantitative tightening. However, the pair benefited from a general decline in the value of the US dollar as inflationary pressures in the country continued to subside.
The euro-to-dollar exchange rate started in 2023 at $1.0703 and increased during the month of January, topping $1.08 for a brief while. During the year, the pair traded sideways, with the trading range 10.05-1.10 violated only once in July, toward 1.1280, for a short period of time.
In our full-year 2024 Euro to Dollar forecast, we highlighted that EUR/USD saw the second-smallest yearly range (828 pips) that it had seen since inception in 1999, and that sideways pattern clearly carried over into H1 of this year.
Final words
It’s important to remember that any long-term forecasts, even the EUR/USD forecast, or any other currency pair, are too unreliable to believe in. Too many factors may affect the rate of the currency pair, and it’s best to be up-to-date with what’s happening in the global arena in order to make realistic and reliable predictions.
If you do decide that trading this currency pair is something for you, and you believe in the future of the Euro vs. US Dollar pair, first, you need to decide on a suitable trading strategy for you and work it out first on a demo account, and then on a real account.
You can start in minutes by opening a trading account with CAPEX.com! We provide a user-friendly trading app with an outlook for novices as well as experienced traders and investors.
Read also our daily and weekly updates on other markets:
- Gold analysis and price forecast 2024
- Oil analysis and price forecast 2024
- Dow Jones analysis and forecasts 2024
- Nasdaq-100 forecast and price predictions 2024
- Silver forecast and price predictions 2024
- Natural Gas forecast and price predictions 2024
- Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions 2024
- British Pound forecast and price predictions 2024
- USD to INR forecast 2024, 2025, 2030
- AED to INR forecast 2024, 2025, 2030
- SAR to INR forecast 2024, 2025, 2030
- IBEX 35 forecast and price predictions 2024
Sources:
- https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240624-economic-outlook-eurozone-q3-2024-growth-returns-rates-fall-13155488
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/mid-year-outlook#section-header#1
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240612.pdf
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2024/html/ecb.mg240704~fbde4f46aa.en.html