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EURUSD forecast and price prediction Q2 2024: Is parity a possibility?

Euro to Dollar forecast & price prediction 2024
Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
16 May 2024

Across Q1, the EUR/USD traded in a tight, roughly 300-pip range under 1.10; the price fluctuation was so limited that entirety of the Q1 range falls within the high-low range of each of the previous two quarters, one of the smallest seen since the inception in 1999. Will that be the case in Q2? Here you can find the most recent EurUsd forecast and price predictions by market experts.    

Given that the first three months of the year saw stronger-than-expected growth in the developed world's economies, inflation, and employment, a major focus for Q2 will be whether the economy falters and potentially opens the door to rate cuts at the either/both of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed).

In the end, a lot will depend on how the economic data changes and how the central bankers in question behave, but the latest Euro to Dollar forecasts more interest rate cuts from the ECB than the Fed. Along with updated EUR/USD price predictions and speculations of pair approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. 

Key Euro to Dollar (Eur/Usd) Forecast & Price Predictions  

  • Euro to Dollar forecast today: There is a bias towards the ECB cutting interest rates more than the Fed, which raises the possibility that the EUR/USD will continue to decline as Q2 2024 progresses. 
     
  • Euro to Dollar forecast 2024: With the actual call for 75bp of easing by the Fed in 2024, ING analysts forecast Eur/Usd more likely to trade in the upper-half of the 1.05/1.10 range rather than in the lower-half of 1.00/1.05. The option market prices in an 18% probability of the pair hitting 1.00 in six months, against a 53% chance of hitting 1.10.  
     
  • EurUsd price prediction for the next 5 years: the pair is undervalued in real terms according to ING and based on the interest rate projections, EurUsd should trade above 1.20 in the next years. 

With CAPEX.com you can trade Eur/Usd with tight spreads using our award-winning trading platform and mobile apps.

    

Euro to Dollar (EurUsd) Forecast 2024 – Fundamental  

Three months of US core CPI at 0.4% month-on-month has put paid to our more aggressive call for Federal Reserve easing. Equally, the strong US labour market suggests there is no pressing need for the Fed to cut, which can be delayed until September.

The European Central Bank is expressing its independence from the Fed. It should deliver its first cut in June. This policy divergence has seen rate spreads widen to late 2022 levels – when EUR/USD was trading at 1.05.

Middle East tension only adds to the dollar’s appeal – given it has the advantages of liquidity, high deposit rates and US energy independence. And clarity post the November elections is poor.

The latest ECB policy meeting created a broad path for a rate decrease in June, but future data releases showing some slowing of inflation and wage growth would also enable the ECB to enter that path. The actual rate of decrease in inflation has outpaced the European Central Bank's own projections, which had been firmly set at 2% and below for the second half of 2025 and beyond.  

Many ECB policymakers have begun to worry more about an inflation undershoot should rates not be lowered. However, the latest events are probably going to cause several ECB hawks to reconsider cutting rates in June.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and argued its policy stance is “in a good place”, but officials are concerned about the recent lack of progress on inflation. Rate hikes remain unlikely, but the Fed is prepared to leave interest rates at current levels until that progress is achieved or the jobs market clearly weakens.

Concerns about reflation began with US inflation, which was stronger than anticipated and displayed reflationary tendencies. Although the US and the eurozone are typically depicted as having two distinct stories and distinct economies, the truth is that since the epidemic, US headline inflation has simply outpaced its equivalent by six months.  

Despite somewhat disparate tales of economic growth, the inflation similarities can be explained by common global shocks and comparable supply-side constraints on the domestic front. However, the ECB's new concerns go beyond US inflation and include the euro's decline and the rise in oil prices. 

Factors that could push EUR/USD to parity

The euro has dropped up to 1.06 against the US dollar since the start of the year before bouncing back and there is now increasing discussion in markets on whether it can keep falling to (or close to) parity. Anticipated growing interest rate divergence was the main driver behind the recent weakening, although increasing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and higher oil prices are also adding to the bearish momentum for the euro.

To forecast the likelihood that EUR/USD will reach parity, we need to consider the third quarter of 2022, which is when it last occurred. Rate differences and energy prices were the pair's two main drivers back then. The two-year swap rate spread between EUR and USD was slightly larger (around -175 bps versus the current -160 bps) in favour of the dollar. The EUR/USD pair has more room to decline from its present levels when we look to short-term rate differentials.

However, the euro is no longer under pressure from the energy trouble (see the Crude Oil price forecast for %month% %year% as well as Natural Gas forecast for %month% %year%). The economic fundamentals of the euros were severely impacted in 2022 by record-high energy costs and supply uncertainty, as the collapse of the terms of trade inside the eurozone also resulted in a significant decline in the medium-term real fair value of the euro. For the time being at least, energy prices are far lower than the 2022 peaks despite the present geopolitical unrest.

The energy issue has essentially been supplanted by global equities performance as the short-term driver of EUR/USD, and the stock markets' tenacity has allowed the pair to stay afloat longer than predicted by rates. The terms of trade and other economic fundamentals, however, are statistically what drive movements in the EUR/USD over the medium term. Considering the stronger fundamentals for the euro today than in 2022, a move towards parity would be less tenable now.

How likely is the Euro to Dollar parity forecast?

What then would be required to restore parity between EUR and USD? ING believe that more divergence in Fed-ECB policy can be sufficient, but euro is no longer under the kind of fundamental pressure that the energy crisis placed on its longer-term fair value, we may need to see the 2-year EUR/USD swap rate widening to more than the -175bp low.  

To get EUR/USD close to 1.00, markets would have to eliminate all Fed easing bets for this year while keeping those for the ECB between 75 and 100 basis points. Given the extraordinary strength of US data and the ongoing upward revision of Fed rate forecasts, this is not unfeasible.

Analysts and markets core view remains that the Fed will cut rates at one point this year as the US consumer story ultimately softens and inflation reverts to a more stable downward trend. In line with their call for 75bp of easing by the Fed in 2024, ING forecasts EUR/USD as more likely to trade in the upper-half of the 1.05/1.10 range rather than in the lower-half of 1.00/1.05.

US Dollar Forecast: US slowdown is central    

Markets are currently pricing little chance of any action at the 12 June FOMC meeting, 16bp of cuts by September and 35bp of cuts by December – this had been below 30bp ahead of the press conference. Considering that the market was only three months ago fully discounting 150 basis points of rate reduction this year, beginning at the FOMC meeting in March, this is a remarkable turnaround.

ING is forecasting the first move coming at the September FOMC meeting with two further rate cuts by the Fed in November and December versus the consensus forecast of 50bp of cuts this year. Business surveys suggest caution on the outlook for the economy is warranted while employment surveys point to a pronounced slowing in hiring in coming months.  

They also expect inflation to post more encouraging readings as cooler economic activity and subdued labour cost growth help dampen price pressures. However, to deliver a cut we would likely need to see at least three 0.2% MoM core inflation prints and the unemployment rate trend upwards to perhaps 4.2% or above. Given the current strength in the economic numbers the risks are skewed towards the Fed moving later and more slowly than the actual forecasts. 

Euro Forecast: ECB has bigger concerns than a falling currency 

The ECB doesn't seem overly concerned about the euro's decline now. What can cause issues for the ECB hawks, at least, is the increase in oil prices and the possibility of further escalation of the Middle East conflicts. With oil prices already over 10% higher than those included in the ECB's March projections, at USD90/bbl, inflation estimates could rise by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in 2024 and 2025.

Since there are only four weeks left until the deadline for the crucial June predictions, it is still too early. A rather moderate inflation prognosis, in which inflation would only hit the ECB's target at the very end of the projected horizon, may be abruptly altered, though, by the euro at parity and oil prices at USD $100/bbl.

The combination of an even further weakening euro exchange rate, geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices could bring back inflation headaches and limit the ECB’s room for maneuver. 

EurUsd Forecast – Technical Analysis 

The diverging economic performance of the US and the EU deepened in Q1, which led to a decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Additionally, during times of low volatility, higher-yielding currencies tend to benefit from a superior interest rate differential that favours the dollar as investors borrow lower-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones.  

As we've entered Q2, the weekly chart shows that the EUR/USD pair is nearly exactly in the middle of both its 2023 range and its 3-year range. The odds of a stronger trend have increased after over a year of consolidation.

However, traders may want to wait for prices to break out before making any strong decisions because there is no obvious technical trend and there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the timing and volume of interest rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic.  

EurUsd Forecast Q2 2024
 

In terms of the key levels to watch, the 2023 range between 1.0500 and 1.1000 will be key. A bullish breakout would expose the January/February 2022 highs in the 1.1500 area, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole 2021-2022 drop around 1.1750.  

Meanwhile, a bearish breakout below 1.0500 support could, in turn, have bears targeting the retracements of the 2022-2023 rally at 1.0200 (61.8%) and 0.9900 (78.6%), as well as the psychologically significant parity level at 1.00.

1.0700 remains a key area for EUR/USD in Q2 as it represents a tripwire for continued selling. While the Euro to Dollar is forecasted to trade within the descending channel during this quarter, a short-term breakout above the 1.08 could send price again to test the 1,1000 key resistance area. 

How do analysts see the market moving in the coming months and years? Below, we look at some of the latest projections. 

Euro to Dollar Price Predictions 2024  

Here we look at the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) forecast for 2024, including comments from highly rated FX strategists.  

Euro To Dollar Forecast End-2024: 1.14 At BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas said that EURUSD has underperformed their expectations over the past month following the ECB's September meeting, in its October edition of Markets 360. Additionally, stated that "The current account has normalized and is now in a comfortable surplus – implying that the EUR will be more resilient as global growth slows – and portfolio flows show that this surplus is not being recycled abroad, as has typically been the case in the past."

The bank, however, warned that there were risks of higher energy prices on Europe's single currency in the near term as energy shocks induced by supply constraints will lead to weaker terms of trade, weighing on the Euro.

However, BNP Paribas mentioned that the prospect of the eventual narrowing in the USD-EUR rate differential and structural arguments keep the bank confident in their medium-term expectation of a rise in the EUR, and they keep their initial EURUSD forecast for the end of 2024 at 1.15.

Bullish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024

Recently, ING updated their Euro to Dollar forecast to trade above 1.10 later this year and early next.  

The Dutch bank still see the ECB cutting rates at the June meeting. However, the combination of an even further weakening euro exchange rate, geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices could bring back inflation headaches and limit the ECB’s room for maneuver.

ING's core view remains that the Fed will cut rates at one point this year as the US consumer story ultimately softens and inflation reverts to a more stable downward trend.  

In line with their call for 75bp of easing by the Fed in 2024, they see EUR/USD as more likely to trade in the upper-half of the 1.05/1.10 range rather than in the lower-half of 1.00/1.05. 

Bearish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2024 from Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley provides its 2024 outlook for major currency pairs, including EUR/USD. The bank's forecast is shaped by expectations of technical recessions in the eurozone,

The bank forecast the eurozone to enter technical recessions, prompting their central banks to start cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024. The anticipated weak growth and falling rates are expected to weigh on the EUR.

The EUR/USD is forecasted to return to parity (1.00) by Q1 2024 and remain around that level for most of the year.

Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction from Bank of America

Bank of America's 2024 Euro to Dollar forecasts confirm it is more bearish on the U.S. Dollar than the consensus, with analysts saying Federal Reserve interest rate cuts "matter more for the market" than cuts at other central banks.

Bank of America (BofA) forecasts the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EURUSD) to clear the 1.10 level over the coming months and rise toward its fair value. However, analysts caution this does not necessarily mean "the Euro will be supported on its own merits."

The coming USD weakness will be premised on expectations that U.S. economic growth will "land" and create a smaller outperformance gap for the U.S. versus others in a "U.S. recoupling".

Bullish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts forecast the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) to strengthen to 1.12 by June 2024 before fading to 1.08 by March 2025.

The bank continues to expect the US economy to slide into recession in 2024 and the Fed to cut its key interest rate by a total of 150 bps in response. However, as the market still seems confident that the US economy will manage a ‘soft landing’, they forecast the EUR/USD pair to rise to around 1.12.

Bearish Euro to Dollar price prediction 2024 from Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs doubts that US yields will decline further in the short term and added; “for FX in particular, we still think it will be hard to erode much more of the Dollar’s appeal at this stage.”

Goldman also expects that the US economy will be resilient. In part this reflects the fact that the US household sector is less sensitive to higher interest rates due to the impact of long-term mortgage fixes. It also considers that European economies are more sensitive to higher interest rates and the dollar is liable to strengthen further if the US economy continues to out-perform.

Goldman notes that the Euro-Zone inflation is declining sharply. Although markets are expecting ECB rate cuts in 2024, Goldman notes that short-term pricing is still firm. It considers any adjustment in these expectations on recession risks would be likely to trigger notable Euro losses.

Energy prices will be important for the Euro with the currency in a better position if energy prices decline while strong upward pressure on prices would tend to undermine the Euro.

Overall, Goldman expects that the Euro will struggle during 2024 and forecasts EUR/USD will be held at 1.06 on a 6-month view.

Bullish Euro to Dollar Price Prediction 2024 from Scotiabank

FX Strategists at Scotiabank commented, "The charts suggest the EUR’s rally is starting to struggle above 1.10, as was the case in late November when the spot topped out at 1.1017. Intraday price action does look potentially soft.

According to Scotiabank consolidation is likely to remain the near-term theme: “Underlying trend dynamics remain bullish, however, and still suggest limited scope for EUR weakness and ongoing pressure for EUR gains to extend. Above 1.0960 targets 1.11.”

On the downside; “Support is 1.0870/1.0875; loss of support here could see corrective EUR losses towards 1.0775.”

Scotiabank forecasts the EUR will be able to push on to 1.11/1.12 in the next few weeks.

Bullish Euro to Dollar price prediction from Credit Agricole

Credit Agricole forecasts only very gradual Euro gains; “We expect the Fed to cut rates in 2024 and 2025. Yet, slow growth outside the US and other major central banks starting easing cycles as well will limit the USD fall. EUR-USD will likely rise to 1.13 at end-2024 and will probably hit 1.15 only in late 2025.” 

Bearish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo takes a negative stance on the European outlook, considering that sentiment surveys for both economies have softened sharply in recent months, and European underperformance relative to the US should weigh on both currencies.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also signaled that policy rates have likely reached their peak, thus lessening interest rate support for their respective currencies, commented the US bank.

The bank forecast a softer Euro through early 2024, and a EUR/USD price prediction around 1.0200. 

Bearish Euro to Dollar Forecast 2024 from ANZ

ANZ expects further trouble for the Euro given the increase in energy prices.

According to the bank, rising commodity prices if sustained will add another blow to the EA’s economy. As net importers of energy, higher energy prices will impact the EA’s balance of payments negatively. While they think this will add to downside pressure on the EUR, ANZ forecast is unlikely for EUR/USD to test last year’s low of 0.95, as local storage facilities are better stocked for Europe’s coming winter.

Bearish Euro To Dollar Forecast from SocGen

According to investment bank SocGen, the fundamentals are supporting the dollar; The Treasury is selling bonds, yields are rising, and money is being sucked into the USD, comfortably financing the current account deficit – a fiscal/monetary policy mix that is designed to help the Dollar overshoot to the upside and there’s further to go.

SocGen considers that the US Dollar will maintain its market dominance in the short-term outlook, and forecasts EUR/USD heading toward parity.

Other Euro to Dollar price predictions for 2024

Amundi Asset Management still forecasts EUR/USD gains to 1.18 for mid-2024.  

Danske Bank forecasts that EUR/USD will be resilient in the short term, but continue to expect an underlying grind lower with the pair at 1.03 in 12 months. 

EurUsd price predictions based on AI

Here are the May 2024 EurUsd price predictions from the most popular AI-based sources.

Wallet Investor

Algorithm-based website Wallet Investor’s EUR/USD forecast the pair to close 2024 slightly below 1.05, with a maximum rate of 1.08.   
In a longer-term projection, Wallet Investor’s EUR/USD forecast for 20245 had the pair potentially reaching a high of 1.045 and close the year at slightly above parity.   
The EurUsd forecast for the next 5 years is to trade below parity at 0.87, according to this algorithm website. 

Long Forecast

As of the end of 2023, the service’s EUR/USD forecast for 2024 expected the pair to close the year at 1.047 with a 1.123 high. Long Forecast’s EUR/USD price prediction for 2024 had the pair potentially reaching a maximum price of 1.153. The EurUsd forecast for the next 5 years is to trade around 1.06 according to this algorithm website.  

Trading Economics

The EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.09 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, the agency’s EUR/USD forecast for the next 12 months is 1.08.

AI Pickup

The EUR/USD price prediction for 2024 from AI Pickup is bullish – the website saw the pair averaging a rate of 1.2, with a low of 1.13 and a high of 1.22. The following years, however, could see a rise to an average of 1.10-1.20. The platform’s EUR/USD forecast for 2030 and the next 10 years saw the pair trading at 1.21.

What Drives the Euro / US Dollar Currency Pair 

The EUR/USD trend depends on what stage of the cycle the global economy is at. During a recession, the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, increases. As a result, the eurodollar goes down. 

During a recovery from a recession, investors are not that focused on preserving money. Retail investors search for ways to multiply the deposit. At this stage, the fundamentals driving the EUR/USD currency pair are the GDP growth rates and the monetary policy of central banks. 

A strong economy is a strong currency. The rapid rebound of GDP after the recession is a reason to buy securities of the country. In particular, the belief that the US economy will fully recover from the 2020 recession in the second quarter of 2021 and exceed its potential level in 2022 contributed to the S&P 500 rally by 18% from January to early August. As a result of the capital inflow into the US stock market, the US dollar was strengthened. 

The GDP rate is a reliable indicator but, unfortunately, lagging. The GDP report is published a month or month and a half after the end of the quarter. Therefore, it is very difficult to determine whose economy is growing faster at a particular time, which doesn’t provide a clear picture of the current economic situation to investors. That is why forex traders have to monitor some leading macroeconomic indicators, such as the US and Eurozone PMIs. 

The more the economy heats, the more likely the central bank to phase out the quantitative easing program and hike the interest rates. As a result, the assets denominated in the local currency grow more attractively. That is why the US dollar is currently strengthening against a basket of major currencies.  

To understand the Fed’s intentions, one should track such indicators as inflation and unemployment rate. When these indicators reach the thresholds set by the Fed, the central bank starts scaling back monetary stimulus. In this case, the greenback will grow in value.  

Speeches of central bank representatives are important in forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. The officials’ comments give a clue on how the central banks’ policies could change, and investors could develop trading strategies based on this. 

EUR/USD Trading Tips 

  1. A necessary condition to look for buy opportunities in the long term is the sync trends in the global economy. If the US GDP features robust growth, but China and the euro area face problems, look for sell opportunities.  
  2. Monitor the global financial markets. If the S&P 500 and oil are rallying up simultaneously, it may be a reason to buy the Euro versus US Dollar. If the stock index is growing and the black stuff is falling in value, or both financial assets are depreciating, it is relevant to sell the EURUSD.  
  3. Study the history of the financial asset’s quotes. An example that took place in the past may emerge in the future as a potential EUR/USD price movement.  
  4. Use technical indicators in trading the EUR/USD to determine the current market state and key support/resistance levels. If the Moving Averages often cross the EURUSD chart, the market is trading flat. If the price chart is above the EMA, the trend is bullish; if the price is below the indicator, the underlying trend is bearish.
  5. Use Japanese chart patterns and western chart patterns like head and shoulders, double top and bottom, or triangles to identify entry and exit points.
  6. Do not try to use all popular trading strategies; you’d better find the one that suits you best.  
  7. Always observe the rules of your online trading system. 

EUR/USD price history 

In the beginning, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading below parity. However, starting from 2002, the euro has never been below $1. The euro-dollar all-time low is 0.82; the record high is close to 1.604. 

In 2020, the global economy faced a recession, which lasted for only two months. Because of the panic in financial markets, the demand for greenback sharply increased. As a result, the EURUSD dropped to a level of 1.064, the lowest since April 2017.  

Central banks launched colossal monetary incentives of trillions of dollars to support their economies. The Fed was even called crazy because of a sharp federal funds rate cut from 1.75% to 0 and the start of the Quantitative Easing at a monthly pace of $120 billion. The Federal Reserve balance sheet was growing rapidly, approaching $9 trillion, and the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. In particular, the euro, from January to March, was almost 16% up and reached $1.234. 

In late 2020, the euro was expected to be trading up. Many banks suggested the EURUSD should have exceeded 1.25 in 2021. Some aggressive bulls expected the euro around $1.3. In reality, things turned out to be different. Due to the slow vaccination in the EU, which turned into new lockdowns and a double recession, the euro collapsed to 1.1705. 

Thanks to vaccines, investors became reassured in the global economic recovery. Furthermore, the EURUSD buyers were again encouraged to invest in the Euro Dollar by a successful vaccination campaign in the EU and the Fed’s unwillingness to recognize a surge in US inflation. The pair was up to 1.226 in late May. Bulls again were aiming at 1.25, but the FOMC June projection broke the uptrend again. The Fed started talking about a potential federal funds rate hike in 2022, which encouraged investors to buy the US dollar. 

After falling from 1.2275 at the start of 2021, EUR/USD started 2022 at 1.1375. The price rose to a high of 1.1495 in early February before steadily dropping to a low of 1.0380 on May 13 – a level last seen in January 2017.

From that low point, the share price rose to 1.0790 at the start of June before taking another leg lower to 1.04. 

The pair briefly breached parity on 13 July, as markets reacted to US inflation figures. That was followed by an immediate rebound that sent EUR/USD back above 1.0100.

As of 15 July 2022, the pair has fallen over 12% year-to-date to trade around the 1.00 level.

EUR/USD began 2022 at $1.1375, down from $1.2275 at the beginning of 2021. Early in February, the price of the pair reached a high of $1.1495 before progressively declining to a low of $1.0380 on May 13 - a level last reached in January 2017. 

The pair fell below $0.99 on September 5 for the first time in 20 years as a result of Russia shutting down its main gas pipeline to the EU, severely jeopardizing the euro zone's economic prospects. 

Midway through December, the EUR/USD traded back up to around the $1.06 level due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields. The ECB increased interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) as anticipated on December 15, reiterating that more hikes will follow, and outlining plans for quantitative tightening. However, the pair benefited from a general decline in the value of the US dollar as inflationary pressures in the country continued to subside. 

The euro-to-dollar exchange rate started in 2023 at $1.0703 and increased during the month of January, topping $1.08 for a brief while. During the year, the pair traded sideways, with the trading range 10.05-1.10 violated only once in July, toward 1.1280, for a short period of time.

Final words 

It’s important to remember that any long-term forecasts, even the EUR/USD forecast, or any other currency pair, are too unreliable to believe in. Too many factors may affect the rate of the currency pair, and it’s best to be up-to-date with what’s happening in the global arena in order to make realistic and reliable predictions. 

If you do decide that trading this currency pair is something for you, and you believe in the future of the Euro vs. US Dollar pair, first, you need to decide on a suitable trading strategy for you and work it out first on a demo account, and then on a real account. 

You can start in minutes by opening a trading account with CAPEX.com! We provide a user-friendly trading app with an outlook for novices as well as experienced traders and investors. 

Read also our daily and weekly updates on other markets: 

EUR/USD Analysis and Forecast FAQ 

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
financial_writer

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for CAPEX.com. Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.