Gold price is forecasted to continue this record-breaking rally in the second half of the year, after gaining more than 15% so far this year. Here are the latest gold forecasts and price predictions for the second half of 2024 and beyond from banks and leading industry experts.
Gold spot (XAU/USD) traded above $2,300/oz for most of the second quarter and recorded its third-straight quarterly gain, marking its best run since the Covid pandemic. The +15% surge in the first half of the year was driven mostly by safe-heaven demand amid the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as buying by central banks.
The precious metal set record after record despite the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high, strength in the US dollar and divergence in US Treasury 10-year yields and ETF holdings and gold prices.
Analysts forecast gold will keep its positive momentum going in the second half amid the current global geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape while central bank demand is expected to grow. However, he cautions that the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates supports the greenback, and its strength also enhances its reserve currency appeal, eroding the ascending prospects of the yellow metal.
This article provides an in-depth market outlook and gold price predictions for July 2024, and beyond, examining critical market themes and key drivers, as well as valuable insights into price action dynamics, that could play a pivotal role in shaping the precious metal's trajectory.
Gold Forecast & Price Prediction – Key Notes
- Gold forecast in the coming days and weeks: Two active military theatres, key elections ahead and uncertain global monetary policy suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Overall, gold is forecasted to average $2,300/oz in the third quarter of 2024.
- Gold price prediction 2024: Analysts forecast this record-breaking rally is likely to continue as the global rush for gold continues. Gold is forecasted to average $2,255/oz in 2024, with prices peaking in the fourth quarter, averaging $2,350/oz on the assumption that the Fed starts cutting rates in the second half of the year and the dollar and yields weaken.
- Gold rate forecast for the next 5 years: While most analysts predict a moderate gold price increase in 2025, the most optimistic gold rate predictions for the next 5 years are pointing towards $3000.
With CAPEX.com you can trade CFDs on gold spot (XAU/USD) and gold bullion ETF (GLD) if you want to speculate on price movements or invest in gold mining stocks or gold mining ETFs.
Fundamental Gold Forecast Q3 2024
Gold opened the second half of the year approximately $100 higher than its opening level in the second quarter of 2024, having reached a new all-time high in mid-May. The global interest rate environment has seen anticipated rate cuts fail to materialize, particularly in the United States, as inflation persists above the forecasts of various central banks.
Central bank purchases, especially from China, have shifted the supply-demand balance in favour of higher prices. However, any pullback in demand could leave gold vulnerable to downside pressure.
Additionally, the political risk premium that had supported gold has diminished, although it may resurface at any moment, especially with several high-profile elections on the horizon. Gold traders will have numerous factors to monitor closely in the third quarter and the second half of the year.
Delays in US Rate Cuts
Optimism about US interest rate cuts as more economic data supports the case for a Federal Reserve pivot has also supported the outlook for gold this year. Lower borrowing costs are generally supportive of non-interest-bearing gold.
At the beginning of 2024, financial markets were anticipating between four and five 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the first move expected in the second quarter. These forecasts have been revised significantly lower over the past few months, currently projecting one or, more likely, two rate cuts. This aligns with the latest FOMC year-end projections.
Poor economic data released at the beginning of Q3 has bolstered the prospect of the Fed pivoting to monetary easing as soon as September. Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics showed US hiring and wage growth cooling in June while the jobless rate edged up. Swap traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in two months, boosting the
ING's economists consider that September is in play for a first Fed rate cut and they look for three cuts this year versus the two cuts currently priced by markets with the Fed funds down at 4% by next summer.
With US interest rates remaining elevated, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold increases. Interest-bearing investments such as bonds become relatively more attractive because they can generate income through interest payments. As a result, investors may choose to shift their capital away from gold and toward assets that can provide a yield or return based on the prevailing interest rates.
Central banks keep buying gold
According to the World Gold Council, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, the second-highest annual acquisition in history, after setting a record of 1,082 tonnes in 2022. A total of 70 central banks participated in the 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, which was conducted between February 19 and April 30, 2024. Of those, 29% said they planned to increase their gold reserves in the upcoming year, which is "the highest level we have observed since we began this survey in 2018."
May saw 10 tonnes of net gold purchases from central banks, however demand decreased during the course of the month. According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), developing market central banks topped May's purchases of gold, with the National Bank of Poland being the biggest buyer, followed by the Central Bank of Turkey and the Reserve Bank of India.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India added more than nine tonnes in June – the most since July 2022. India’s reserves have expanded by 37 tonnes this year to 841 tonnes.
We still expect central bank demand to remain strong looking ahead amid the current economic climate and geopolitical tensions.
The recent WGC survey indicates that central bank purchasing will remain strong, with 29% of central bank respondents intending to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months – the most since the WCG started a gold reserve survey in 2018.
China halts buying gold for reserves
Following an 18-month buying spree, China stopped purchasing gold for reserve purposes in May when the precious metal reached a record high. Data released last week shows that the amount of gold held by the People's Bank of China remained steady at 72.80 million troy ounces in May. China did not add gold to reserves for a second consecutive month in June.
For the first time since October 2022, the nation's central bank did not increase its reserves. Gold is now more susceptible to negative pressure as a result.
China was the top buyer of gold, and central banks' demand for the metal saw its best start to a year ever in the first quarter. In unstable times, when investors flock to safe-haven assets as a buffer against inflation, geopolitical unrest, or the state of the economy, gold prices tend to increase.
The People's Bank of China purchased just 60,000 troy ounces of gold in April, compared to 160,000 ounces in March and 390,000 ounces in February, signalling a slowdown in the country's appetite for the metal. The record-breaking gold rise may temporarily dampen demand.
ETF flows turn positive in May
Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows turned positive in May after a year, with Europe and Asia leading global inflows, while North America turned negative.
Investor holdings in Gold ETF generally rise when gold prices gain, and vice versa. However, gold ETF holdings have been in decline for much of 2024, while spot gold prices have hit new highs. ETF flows finally turned positive in May.
Meanwhile, net-long positions on the COMEX moved higher month-over-month in May, adding to the positive market sentiment in gold.
Controversial Upcoming Elections
A number of major general elections will take place around the world in the second half of 2024, possibly including a rematch between US President Joe Biden and US President Donald Trump. Expectedly, this election will be quite controversial, and market volatility is likely to intensify in the run-up to the November 5th vote.
While both parties this year have voiced concerns about foreign meddling and media bias, the last presidential election was hotly contested, with Donald Trump blaming voter fraud for his defeat. It will be essential to watch the activities leading up to this year's election.
Will the Gold Price Decrease in the Coming Days and Weeks?
More unusually, gold can behave like a risk asset. We saw examples of this during the global financial crisis, when certain types of investment funds were propelled to sell their most liquid assets to offset portfolio losses elsewhere. Under this relatively rare scenario, the gold price can fall at the same time as shares.
However, the most frequent scenarios are those of a market crash that feeds demand for cash, when the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns, or when markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as detailed in our educative section below.
Medium to longer-term, gold prices are forecasted be driven by geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. The US presidential election in November and the long-awaited US Fed rate cut will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year, in our view. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which should offer support.
Even if gold prices will decrese in the coming days, are still expected to average $2,300 in the third quarter. Gold prices are forecasted to increase in the in the fourth and peak at $2,350/oz making for an annual average of $2,255/oz.
What analysts are forecasting about gold price
Geopolitical risks emanating from the Red Sea and a year with a dense election calendar globally will likely see continued strength in retail demand for gold, according to commodity strategists.
TD Securities forecast that a combination of weaker equities, and some interest rate declines (in Fed funds futures pricing), are reigniting interest in gold, even though the Federal Reserve has moved the dots at its FOMC meeting. Gold is typically driven by macro variables, rather than supply and demand, says UBS Group, explaining that the surge in the unique commodity’s price is unique as it has little to do with its use case. Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone told Yahoo Finance that we might be in the early days of a bull market breaking out to new highs. According to a survey by the WCG, 24% of all central banks are planning to build up their gold reserves in 2024, on concerns about the USD as a reserve asset. ING said the Fed's policy remains the biggest key for gold prices in coming months—meaning prices may continue following investors' short-term rate cut expectations. J.P. Morgan highlighted in its 2024 commodities outlook that the only structural bullish call they held across commodities was on gold and silver. Five-decade high gold purchases by central banks globally and the potential for D. Trump to heighten tensions between the U.S. and China are also all reasons to remain bullish on gold moving forward, said UBS Global Wealth Management. WisdomTree wouldn't be surprised if gold gives back some of these gains as the U.S. Federal Reserve talks down imminent cuts, but once rate cuts look certain, they forecast gold to trade significantly higher in 2024.
Is it Time to Invest in Gold?
Gold, which has historically been seen as a safe-haven asset that holds its value, rose to prominence among investors in 2020 amid the worst pandemic in living memory, with gains over 40%. The yellow metal has returned over 40% over the last three years, almost 60% over the last five years, and close to 500% over the past 20 years.
That compares unfavourably to the S&P500, but easily trumps the low- to mid-single-digit returns for other nonequity investments such as government bonds and high-yield savings accounts, underperforming the best deposit rates only on short-term periods.
$3.3 trillion is the amount of gold held by investors, according to JPMorgan Chase. That accounts for about 1.4% of the value of all global investments.
In addition to buying physical gold or futures contracts for the metal, investors can also purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding the commodity or buy shares of public companies that mine the metal.
Gold mining stocks have surged this year: Shares of Gold Fields (up 50%), Kinross Gold (27%), Franco-Nevada (14%), Royal Gold (19%) and Barrick Gold (10%) have each outperformed the S&P 500’s 8% gain.
How to Invest in Gold in 2024
With CAPEX.com, you can invest in gold in many ways:
Trading GOLD Spot
Spot gold involves the immediate purchase or sale of the precious metal, with the exchange occurring at the precise moment the trade is settled, or ‘on the spot’ price. When engaging in spot gold trading, investors open buy or sell positions at the current market rate, commonly referred to as the spot price.Trading or Buying Gold ETFs
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can help investors track the performance of shares in a collection of publicly traded gold mining, refining, and production companies. Engaging in ETF trading extends investors' exposure and hence helps to diversify their portfolios.Trading or Buying Gold Stocks
Gold mining companies and gold mining funds are another way to invest in gold. This will enable investors to diversify their portfolio within the gold industry, either trading (going long or short) or buying shares in companies involved in mining and production of gold.
Technical Gold Forecast Q3 2024: Reversal or Consolidation?
During the first quarter of 2024, prices continued the upward trend that started in the last months of 2023. The gold rate surged to new all-time highs during this upswing, breaching above $2,150 and ultimately hitting a high above $2,400 before decreasing in the coming days and weeks.
During the second quarter, Gold prices increased +100$, testing the $2,400 levels three times. Gold prices decreased in the coming days following the swings high and is potentially forming a bearish Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) price pattern. These chart patterns generally occur at market tops and signal a change of trend. If the H&S is valid it may be an indication that the medium-term bull trend is reversing.
The H&S pattern began forming in April and will complete a left and right shoulder (labeled “S”) and a “head” (labeled “H”) if gold prices will decrease in the coming days following the lower high at . The so-called “neckline” of the pattern appears to be at the $2,279 support level (red line).
Declining trade volume during its development corroborates the pattern.
Will gold price decrease in the coming days following the completion of the reversal pattern?
- A decisive break below the neckline would validate the H&S pattern and activate downside targets. The first, more conservative, target would be $2,171, calculated by taking the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the pattern and extrapolating it lower from the neckline. The second target would be at $2,106, the full height of the pattern extrapolated lower.
- A break above $2,345, however, would bring the H&S into doubt and could signal a continuation higher, to an initial target at the $2,450 peak.
Gold price predictions for 2024 from experts
Many sources and experts provide gold forecasts and gold price predictions for 2024 based on different models, methods, and assumptions. Despite the average performance in 2024, many investment banks continue to maintain a bullish gold rate forecast for 2024 and the next 5 years.
However, the central banks continue to bolster their gold reserves, highlighting the enduring appeal of the precious metal. In the following sections, we will discuss the gold forecasts and price predictions from some of the most reputable and influential sources and experts:
- The World Bank predicts an average gold price of $1,950 per ounce in 2024.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast an average gold price of $1,775 per ounce in 2024.
- Goldman Sachs predicts an average gold price of $2,133 per ounce in 2024.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts the gold price to reach $2,175 per ounce in 2024.
- ABN AMRO has a gold prediction of an average price of $2,000 per ounce in 2024.
- City Group edged its 2024 forecast for average gold prices up to $2,040.
- UBS upgrades its 2024 Gold price forecast to $2,200 from $1,950.
- Commerzbank forecast Gold should succeed in overcoming its all-time high of $2,075 in 2024.
- ING forecast higher gold prices in 2024.
- TD Securities forecast gold prices to average $2,300 in the second quarter of 2024.
- UOB forecast gold to reach new record highs in 2024.
The World Bank’s Gold Prediction 2024
The World Bank, one of the key players among central banks and a global financial institution offering loans and grants to developing nations for various projects, recently forecasted an average gold price of $1,950 per ounce in 2024, an increase from $1,700 per ounce in 2023. This updated 2024 gold price forecast is built on assumptions that the conflict in the Middle East is set to lead to heightened global uncertainty, with substantial implications to gold prices if the conflict escalates. “Although the initial impact has so far been moderate, its escalation would exacerbate such uncertainty, which would lead to reduced risk appetite as well as lower consumer and investor confidence. These developments could lead to sharply higher gold prices”.
The World Bank's gold price prediction 2025 states that “Prices are forecast to remain elevated but decline gradually to average around $1,830 an ounce in 2025”.
The IMF’s Gold Forecast 2024
The IMF, an international organization fostering global financial stability, economic cooperation, and sustainable growth, forecasts an average gold price of $1,775 per ounce in 2024, a slight decrease from $1,800 per ounce in 2023. This 2024 gold rate prediction is based on projections of global economic activity, inflation expectations, and financial market conditions.
We are still waiting for an updated gold price prediction for 2024 from the IMF.
Goldman Sachs’s Gold Prediction 2024
Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm, has a positive outlook for the yellow metal in 2024, and forecasts an average gold price of $2,133 per ounce. The firm’s analysts believe that gold will trade higher than the market consensus in the near term, primarily due to its status as a safe-haven asset and the “fear” factor. This fear factor is driven by rising uncertainties, including banking and funding stress and the increased market-implied probability of a US recession in 2024. Goldman Sachs also cites the wealth effect, particularly the boom in income and savings in emerging markets like China and India, as a factor supporting gold prices.
JP Morgan’s Gold Rate Prediction 2024
According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., gold will average $2,012 by the middle of 2024 and hit $2,175 per ounce by the fourth quarter of the year. This is up from a price of about $1,915 as of Aug. 9, 2023. The bank expects the FED to completely reverse its policy of tightening interest rates in the very near future and begin cutting rates by Q2 2024, with falling yields being a “significant driver” for gold. Owning gold in a low-rate environment does force you to give up the high income you might earn from other investments in a high-yield environment. Thus, money tends to flow back into gold, as JP Morgan predicts for the upcoming 12-to-18 months.
ABN AMRO’s Gold Price Prediction 2024
ABN AMRO, a Dutch bank providing various banking and financial services to retail, private, and corporate clients, has a gold prediction of an average price of $2,000 per ounce in 2024, a decrease from $2,200 per ounce. This 2024 gold rate prediction is based on its expectations of a stronger US dollar, higher real interest rates, lower inflation pressures, and weaker investor gold demand.
Citigroup’s Gold Rate Prediction 2024
Citigroup edged its 2024 forecast for average gold prices up to $2,040/oz and said it sees an opportunity to "buy the dip" as U.S. inflation data eases. The improved technical picture for the gold market is based on rising expectations for an end to the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, causing Treasury yields to decline, thus aiding low- and zero-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
UBS’s Gold Rate Forecast 2024
UBS, a multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland, revised its Q1 2024 gold price prediction to $2,200. Prior was $1950. UBS cites three key factors: consistent demand from central banks, inherent weakness in the US dollar, and escalating recession fears in the US.
Commerzbank’s Gold Prediction 2024
Commerzbank, the second largest bank in Germany forecasts gold should succeed in overcoming its all-time high in 2024 and trade at 2100 in the second half of the year. Gold price is likely to trend sideways in the short term, as uncertainty about the future path of US monetary policy remains high. Lower US inflation argues for an end to interest rate hikes, but the robust US economic growth so far argues against a quick turnaround in interest rates.
The bullish 2024 gold forecast is based on expectations that the US economy will slide into recession, which should fuel speculation about interest rate cuts.
ING’s Gold Rate Forecast 2024
The Dutch bank believes that with inflation having remained sticky and the latest jobs numbers beating all expectations, the Fed to push their projections for rate cuts back, so they end up with two cuts in 2024 and four in 2025 instead of three and three.
As a result, they forecast gold prices to come down slightly from their current levels this quarter as the Fed continues its cautious approach, and with geopolitics already being factored into the current price.
ING forecast gold to average $2,300/oz in the second quarter and an annual average of $2,255/oz in 2024. They also forecast gold prices to peak in the fourth quarter, averaging $2,350/oz on the assumption that the Fed starts cutting rates in the second half of the year and the dollar and yields weaken.
TD Securities' Gold Price Prediction 2024
TD Securities forecast markets must be a little bit more convinced for gold to move higher, but ultimately in the second quarter, we do think it can go to over $2,300. The big reason behind this bullish gold forecast is that we're seeing the market increasingly believing that a Fed rate cut is nearer rather than further away.
According to a recent survey by the World Gold Council, 24% of all central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, as they increasingly grow pessimistic about the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset.
“This means potentially higher demand from the official sector in the years to come,” explains the analysts of TD Securities.
UOB's Gold Rate Forecast 2024
Global economics and markets research at UOB said that the anticipated retreat in both the USD and interest rates across 2024 are key positive drivers for gold. As a result, they forecast gold prices could reach up to $2,200 an ounce by the end of 2024.
The average consensus forecast is $2,100+ per ounce for 2024. However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. The current gold prices and forecasts for gold should guide us, but the economic landscape always offers surprise turns.
Other Gold price predictions 2024 (AI-Based)
The "higher-for-longer" global monetary policy stance is still having a negative impact on gold prices, which are hovering around their lowest levels since March 2023.
Although there is still potential for the price of the precious metal to decline, agencies and AI-based websites are still optimistic that prices would rise beyond $2,000 per ounce next year and higher through 2025 despite the short-term setback.
Wallet Investor - Neutral Gold price prediction 2024
Gold price is forecasted to trade slightly above the 2,300 levels in 2024. The forecasting agency is not expecting Gold to reach new highs during 2024, but to consolidate between $2,300 and $2,400 levels.
Coin Price Forecast - Bullish gold price prediction 2024
In the first half of 2024, the gold price forecast is $2,471; in the second half, the price would add $23 and close the year at $2,494.
Long Forecast - Bearish gold price prediction 2024
Gold price prediction for the end of Q2 2024 points to a high at $2,674. The AI-based website is forecasting gold to trade towards the $3,000 price levels during 2024 and close the year at $2,946. This is one of the most bullish gold price forecasts for 2024.
Trading Economics - Neutral to bullish gold rate forecast 2024
Gold is expected to trade at $2,094373 USD/t oz. by the end of 2023Q2 2024, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analystsanalysts' expectations. Looking forward, they forecast gold to trade at $2,16443 in 12 months' time.
Gold price prediction for the next 5 years
Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.
What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? See below the forecaster's projections for gold prices in the 5 years approximately.
Gold Price Prediction for the next 5 years from Long Forecast
The Economy Forecast Agency provides a gold price prediction only till the mid of 2028. The 2025 Gold price prediction is a trading range between 2,800 and 3,200. The gold prediction for the next 5 years is $3,300.
Gold price forecast for the next 5 years from Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor offers a gold price forecast for the next 5 years. The opening Gold price in 2025 is forecasted to be $2,400. The closing price in June 2025 will be $2,409. At the end of December, the closing price will be $2,440. The first half of 2026 is also nice and pleasant for gold investors. The following periods will also demonstrate the uptrend, and the year will close with $2,500 with a maximum of $2,520. Moderate growth will continue until 2028. The gold price prediction for the next 5 years is $2,700.
Gold Price Prediction 2025-2030 from Coin Price Forecast
According to the latest long-term forecast, gold price will hit $2,627 by the end of 2025 and then $2,676 by the end of 2026. Gold will rise above $3,000 within the year of 2027, $4,500 in 2030 and $5,200 in 2033. This is one of the most bullish gold rate forecast for the next 5 and 10 years.
*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. When considering gold price predictions for 2024 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term gold analysis and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their gold forecast wrong.
What moves the price of gold in the future?
Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words:
- In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
- In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion), gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.
If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:
– rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.
– fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011.
When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to:
- Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend.
- Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash.
How has the price of Gold changed over time?
Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make your predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.
Gold Price in 2019
The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.
Gold Price in 2020
The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020.
The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the COVID-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.
Gold Price in 2021
The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India.
There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend.
Gold Price in 2022
Between the end of January 2022 and the 8th of March 2022, gold had a 16% gain, trying to surpass its previous record high of $2075 per ounce set in August 2020 as a result of the conflict in Ukraine that increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion.
Midway through March 2022, the Fed announced its first interest rate increase of the year, and gold started to flex lower. The downward trend in gold prices continued through the summer and into Q3 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickened the pace of rises. In the midst of a dollar rally and rising Treasury yields, gold plummeted 22% from its March highs to September lows at 1,615/oz.
After reaching a so-called technical "triple bottom" in the months of September, October, and November, gold started to rise by 12% by the end of December.
Overall, gold's performance in 2022 was inconsistent when compared to that of other important metals. Copper (-14%) and palladium (-4.2%) were outperformed by the yellow metal, but they lagged behind silver (+4.5%) and platinum (+4.6%).
Gold Price in 2023
May 2023 saw gold prices rise to almost record levels, with a peak at $2,067, a level not seen since March 2022. The ongoing talks over the US debt ceiling served as fuel for the most recent spike. The US economy could run out of cash as early as the beginning of June, according to Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary.
However, prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the FED's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years.
After wild swings, gold showed a strong rebound in Q4 2023 and hit an all-time high, amid geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty.
Gold Price in 2024
After a failed attempt, gold broke the multi-year resistance area around $2.080, reaching a record $2,195 high on March 6, followed by a record high above 2,400 in mid-May. Among the factors favoring this bull rally are geopolitical uncertainty, the likely weakening of the U.S. dollar, and potential interest rate cuts.
Conclusion: Is Gold a good investment for 2024 and beyond?
Drawing from these expert insights, they anticipate a slight uptick in gold prices for 2024. The average cost could hover around $2,100 per ounce by year’s end. However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. Things can change, and there’s always a level of uncertainty.
For potential gold investors, experts at Morgan Stanley recommend some gold in a well-balanced, conservative portfolio to protect against inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies and geopolitical factors. But before you invest in gold, do your homework. Understand the risks and costs of buying and selling gold. And keep a close eye on market trends and conditions.
To sum up: experts can make educated gold forecasts and price predictions, but as with any investment, there's no 100% guarantee.
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Sources:
- https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-outlook-2024
- https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-in-charts.pdf
- https://www.wisdomtree.eu/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/market-outlook/wisdomtree-gold-outlook-q2-2024.pdf
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices
- https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/132-QCPLT