Gold soared above the $2,600 level for the first time, extending a rally boosted by bets for further U.S. interest rate cuts, and rising tensions in the Middle East. Here are the latest gold forecasts and price predictions for the second half of 2024 and beyond from banks and leading industry experts.
Gold price today: Gold spot (XAU/USD) rose as much as 1.37% to $2,600.11 per ounce, continuing its record-setting trend over recent weeks. With the latest milestone, gold is up by an astounding 26% since the start of the year, its biggest annual rise since 2010.
Clearly, there’s still some gold buying activity associated with the Fed’s decision to begin their easing cycle with a big cut, according to TD Securities. However, it “should not go on forever,” said Commerzbank, citing the expectation for rate cuts of only 25 basis points each at the Fed’s next two meetings. Still, some analysts said gold could see more upward spikes, even if gold rate could decrease in the coming days following a new all-time high.
This article provides an in-depth market outlook and gold price predictions for December 2024, and beyond, examining critical market themes and key drivers, as well as valuable insights into price action dynamics, that could play a pivotal role in shaping the precious metal's trajectory.
Gold Forecast & Price Prediction – Key Notes
- Gold forecast in the coming days and weeks: Altgough there are expectations for gold rate to decrease in the coming days following the new record, analysts maintain a bullish outlook . Gold is forecasted to trade above $2,600 during the last quarter of the year.
- Gold price prediction 2025: While the Fed's upcoming rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on gold's price trajectory, many analysts believe that there is still room for gold prices to rise further in the coming months. Goldman Sachs' forecast a gold price of $2,700 per troy ounce for early 2025, while other experts forecast even bigger price increases for gold in 2025.
- Gold rate forecast for the next 5 years: The precious metal continues to be seen as a beacon of stability for many investors. Most of the gold rate predictions for the next 5 years point out that the price will trade above $3000.
With CAPEX.com you can trade CFDs on gold spot (XAU/USD) and gold bullion ETF (GLD) if you want to speculate on price movements or invest in gold mining stocks or gold mining ETFs.
Fundamental Gold Forecast Q4 2024
Gold has been one of the best performers among major commodities and assets this year. It has surged 25% year-to-date, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, strong central bank buying and robust Asian purchases.
Safe haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks as well as uncertainty ahead of the US election in November have also supported gold’s record-breaking rally this year.
FED's first rate cut since 2020
The US central bank was widely anticipated to lower interest rates at September’s meeting after holding them at a two-decade high for more than a year, but traders were split over how much the first cut would be.
Meanwhile, gold has hit repeated records over the past weeks as investors weighed prospects that the Fed would deploy a rate reduction bigger than a quarter percentage point, which would present a significant boost to the non-yielding bullion.
Gold, Treasuries and the S&P 500 Index have all typically risen as the Fed starts lowering rates, according to the past six easing cycles going back to 1989.
Fed’s announcement caps a period of flux in the gold market, as some analysts have pointed to a return to more traditional trading patterns, and in particular to gold’s longstanding tendency to rise and fall in the opposite direction to real yields.
That relationship had broken down in recent years, as gold remained historically elevated even as rates soared — with prices supported instead by huge central bank purchases, as well as surging demand from investors and consumers.
In recent months, there have been signs of Western investors jumping back into the gold market too, as bets mounted that the Fed was about to pivot.
The precious metal is in a bull market; it is likely to move higher according to the latest gold forecasts and price predictions (see the next sections). The speed of that move will depend on the pace at which the Fed will ease its policy.
Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Following the Fed’s cut, the dollar fell 0.5% - to its lowest since July 2023 against its rivals.
Central bank gold demand picks up in July
Despite price increases, demand for gold from central banks increased in July also. According to figures from the World Gold Council, reported net gold purchases by central banks increased to 37 tons in July, a more than twofold increase. This is the highest monthly total since January, when central bank purchases totalled 45 tons, and it marks a 206% month-over-month increase.
The Reserve Bank of India, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, and the National Bank of Poland were the top three purchasers during the month.
Following a record high of 1,082 tons in 2022, central banks added 1,037 tons of gold in 2023, the second-highest yearly purchase in history. Considering the present economic situation and geopolitical unrest, we anticipate that central bank demand will continue to be robust.
China halts buying gold for reserves
Following an 18-month buying spree, China stopped purchasing gold for reserve purposes in May when the precious metal reached a record high. Data released last week shows that the amount of gold held by the People's Bank of China remained steady at 72.80 million troy ounces in May. China did not add gold to reserves for a second consecutive month in June.
For the first time since October 2022, the nation's central bank did not increase its reserves. Gold is now more susceptible to negative pressure as a result.
China was the top buyer of gold, and central banks' demand for the metal saw its best start to a year ever in the first quarter. In unstable times, when investors flock to safe-haven assets as a buffer against inflation, geopolitical unrest, or the state of the economy, gold prices tend to increase.
The People's Bank of China purchased just 60,000 troy ounces of gold in April, compared to 160,000 ounces in March and 390,000 ounces in February, signalling a slowdown in the country's appetite for the metal. The record-breaking gold rise may temporarily dampen demand.
ETF inflows continue
There has also been a resurgence in demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by gold. Four months in a row, there were inflows into global gold ETFs; positive flows were seen in all regions, with Western funds leading the way in August.
Gold ETF holdings by investors typically increase in tandem with increases in gold prices. However, as spot gold prices have reached all-time highs, gold ETF holdings have been declining for the whole of 2024. Finally, in May, ETF flows started to increase.
Controversial Upcoming Elections
A number of major general elections will take place around the world in the second half of 2024, possibly including a rematch between US President Joe Biden and US President Donald Trump. Expectedly, this election will be quite controversial, and market volatility is likely to intensify in the run-up to the November 5th vote.
While both parties this year have voiced concerns about foreign meddling and media bias, the last presidential election was hotly contested, with Donald Trump blaming voter fraud for his defeat. It will be essential to watch the activities leading up to this year's election.
Will the Gold Price Decrease in the Coming Days and Weeks after the FED pivot?
The Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut of the year in its September FOMC meeting — and that could have far-reaching implications for various asset classes, including gold. So, what can we expect to happen to the price of gold once the Fed finally cuted rates? That's what we'll break down below.
What will happen to gold prices after the Fed cuts rates?
Historically, interest rates and gold prices have been inversely correlated, with lower rates tending to promote higher gold prices. Thus, many analysts continue to have an optimistic view on gold as the Federal Reserve gets ready to lower interest rates. However, there are many things to consider when predicting the future course of gold prices in this current economic climate.
To begin with, there's a good likelihood that the market has already partially priced in the anticipated rate cut. Therefore, the gold rate decreased in the coming day following the decision, before bouncing back to $2,600. A complex network of factors also affects the price of gold; these include forecasts for inflation, the strength of the US dollar, and the prospects for global economic growth.
But while the Fed's rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on gold's price trajectory, many analysts believe that there is still room for gold prices to rise further in the coming months. Most of the investment banks updated their gold forecasts lately, as seen in our dedicated gold price predictions section below.
These expectations are driven by several factors, one of which is the extraordinary degree of demand for gold by central banks. Global central banks have significantly boosted their gold holdings during the past few years. The conventional relationship between interest rates and gold prices has changed because of this change in central bank behaviour, possibly giving gold prices a stronger floor even while rates fluctuate.
The price increase is being driven by investors' sustained demand, which is also expected to contribute to future price growth. The price of gold is expected to rise as more investors purchase it to profit from its rising price trend or to take advantage of the numerous other advantages it provides.
A significant factor in gold's attraction and likelihood of price growth in the upcoming months is the ongoing geopolitical strife. Gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset is probably going to be strengthened if tensions in the world continue and worries about the amount of debt in the United States increase. As a result, investors looking to diversify their holdings and hedge against future market volatility—both institutional and retail—may become more in demand.
Find out more about your gold investing options.
Is it Time to Invest in Gold?
Determining whether it's the right time to buy gold or invest in gold assets depends on various factors, including your financial goals, risk tolerance and overall portfolio strategy. For the right investor, though, the current economic climate and market conditions may present an opportune moment to consider gold as part of a diversified investment strategy.
Gold has, after all, long been used as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and currency devaluation. Furthermore, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset may grow as the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates and if there are uncertainties in the global economy. Therefore, according to experts investing a portion of your money in gold could offer some stability and safety if you're worried about future market swings or want to diversify your portfolio.
There appears to be a fundamental shift in the perception of gold as a reserve asset, as seen by the continuous demand from central banks, especially in emerging nations. Gold prices may get long-term support from this increasing institutional demand, which might make it a desirable investment for investors with longer time horizons.
However, it's crucial to approach gold investment with a balanced perspective. While gold can offer portfolio diversification and potential protection against economic downturns, it does not generate income like dividend-paying stocks or interest-bearing bonds. Gold prices can also decrease in the short term, so it's best to view this investment as a longer-term option.
How to Invest in Gold in 2024
With CAPEX.com, you can invest in gold in many ways:
Trading GOLD Spot
Spot gold involves the immediate purchase or sale of the precious metal, with the exchange occurring at the precise moment the trade is settled, or ‘on the spot’ price. When engaging in spot gold trading, investors open buy or sell positions at the current market rate, commonly referred to as the spot price.Trading or Buying Gold ETFs
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can help investors track the performance of shares in a collection of publicly traded gold mining, refining, and production companies. Engaging in ETF trading extends investors' exposure and hence helps to diversify their portfolios.Trading or Buying Gold Stocks
Gold mining companies and gold mining funds are another way to invest in gold. This will enable investors to diversify their portfolio within the gold industry, either trading (going long or short) or buying shares in companies involved in mining and production of gold.
Technical Gold Forecast Q4 2024
During the first quarter of 2024, prices continued the upward trend that started in the last months of 2023. The gold rate surged to new all-time highs during this upswing, breaching above $2,150, $2,400 and ultimately the rising wedge pattern, hitting $2,600 before decreasing in the coming days to confirm the chart pattern and rally towards new highs.
A rising wedge pattern appears as an upward-sloping price chart featuring two converging trendlines.
Momentum favors buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims upwards in bullish territory and not in overbought territory. Therefore, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside.
XAU/USD's first resistance would be $2,650, followed by the psychological $2,700 figure. In the event of a pullback, the first support would be the $2,600 mark, followed by the September 18 swing low of $2,546. A breach of the latter will expose the August 20 high, which turned into support at $2,531, before aiming toward the September 6 low of $2,485.
The price target in case of a rising wedge is usually determined by measuring the height of the pattern at its widest point and subtracting that value from the breakout level. In this case, the target is $2,750. However, if the gold rate decreases in the coming days following the 2,600-breakout level below the support level ($2,550) will indicate exhaustion and a potential downtrend.
Some traders use Fibonacci retracement as additional targets to fine tune their exit strategy.
Gold price predictions for 2025 from experts
Many sources and experts provide gold forecasts and gold price predictions for 2024 based on different models, methods, and assumptions. Despite the average performance in 2024, many investment banks continue to maintain a bullish gold rate forecast for 2024 and the next 5 years.
However, the central banks continue to bolster their gold reserves, highlighting the enduring appeal of the precious metal. In the following sections, we will discuss the gold forecasts and price predictions from some of the most reputable and influential sources and experts:
- The World Bank predicts an average gold price of $1,950 per ounce in 2024.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast an average gold price of $1,775 per ounce in 2024.
- Goldman Sachs upgraded their gold price forecast to $2,700 per ounce by the year-end.
- Morgan Stanley predicts Gold Prices to Soar to $2,600 by Q4 2024
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts the gold price to reach $2,600 per ounce in Q4 2024.
- ABN AMRO forecast gold to trade at $2,500 by the end of 2024.
- City Group forecast gold prices to surpass $3,000
- UBS upgrades its 2024 Gold price forecast to $2,200365 (average price) from $12,95200.
- Commerzbank raised its gold forecast to $2,600 in early 2025.
- ING forecast gold prices to reach $2,700 in 2025.
- TD Securities forecast gold prices to hit $2,700 in the first quarter of 2025.
The World Bank’s Gold Prediction 2024
The World Bank, one of the key players among central banks and a global financial institution offering loans and grants to developing nations for various projects, recently forecasted an average gold price of $2,100 per ounce in 2024, an increase from $1,700 per ounce in 2023. This updated 2024 gold price forecast is built on assumptions that the conflict in the Middle East is set to lead to heightened global uncertainty, with substantial implications to gold prices if the conflict escalates. “Although the initial impact has so far been moderate, its escalation would exacerbate such uncertainty, which would lead to reduced risk appetite as well as lower consumer and investor confidence. These developments could lead to sharply higher gold prices”.
The World Bank's gold price prediction 2025 states that “Prices are forecast to remain elevated but decline gradually to average around $2,050 an ounce in 2025”.
The IMF’s Gold Forecast 2024
The IMF, an international organization fostering global financial stability, economic cooperation, and sustainable growth, forecasts an average gold price of $1,775 per ounce in 2024, a slight decrease from $1,800 per ounce in 2023. This 2024 gold rate prediction is based on projections of global economic activity, inflation expectations, and financial market conditions.
We are still waiting for an updated gold price prediction for 2024 from the IMF.
Goldman Sachs’s Gold Prediction 2024
Goldman Sachs noted that gold’s relative stability after the stronger-than-expected US CPI print was yet another demonstration that the metal’s bull market is not being driven by the usual macro suspects. This, along with other factors, has led to Goldman Sachs' decision to raise its forecast for gold prices.
It’s seen that most of the gold upside since mid-2022 has been driven by new incremental (physical) factors, not least a significant acceleration in emerging markets Central Bank accumulation as well as Asian retail buying.
Those factors remain well affirmed by current macro policy and geopolitics, according to Goldman Sachs. With Fed cuts still a likely catalyst to soften the ETF headwind later in the year, and right tail risk from the US election cycle and fiscal setting, gold’s bullish skew remains clear.
From the rebased price level, and with the firm seeing positive price factors still playing out ahead, they upgraded their gold price forecast to $2,700 per ounce by the year-end compared to the previous expectation of $2,300 per ounce.
Morgan Stanley's Gold Rate Forecast 2024
Gold prices are close to new record highs according to Morgan Stanley. This bullish gold forecast comes as XAU/USD has already risen 50% from its 2022 lows and 25% since mid-February, positioning the precious metal for a strong finish to the year.
Morgan Stanley’s gold forecast underscores the complex dynamics at play in the gold market. Central bank purchases, retail and institutional investment, and global economic factors are all contributing to a bullish forecast for gold. As global turmoil continues and economic uncertainties persist, gold's role as a safe-haven asset is likely to drive its price above $2,600 per ounce by the end of 2024.
JP Morgan’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025
With the strong structural bull case for gold remaining intact, JPMorgan Chase & Co has upgraded its gold price prediction for this year and 2025. Gold prices are forecasted to climb to $2,500/oz by the end of 2024, according to J.P. Morgan Research estimates. This gold prediction assumes a Fed cutting cycle commencing in November 2024, pushing gold prices to new nominal highs.
According to JP Morgan, the direction of travel is still higher over the coming quarters, forecasting an average price of $2,500/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $2,600/oz in 2025, with risk still skewed toward an earlier overshoot,
Gold price predictions are based on J.P. Morgan economic forecasts, which have U.S. core inflation moderating to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.
ABN AMRO’s Gold Price Prediction 2024
ABN AMRO, a Dutch bank providing various banking and financial services to retail, private, and corporate clients, said that the outcome of the US elections could have a large impact on gold rate. If there is a Democratic Victory (partial or full) the impact on Gold prices would be limited. In case of a universal tariff under a Trump presidency, we would likely see lower Gold prices.
If there is a Democratic Victory (partial or full) they forecast the Gold prices could be very modestly supported because they expect a modest decline in or a neutral USD and some lower real yields. The bank forecast Gold prices to stay around $2,500 per ounce.
A Republican Victory brings more complicated dynamics. In the scenario of a full tariff implementation, they expect in the first years of the of the presidential term inflation to increase, the FED to keep rates high and the USD to rally because monetary policy divergence and weakness elsewhere.
Citigroup’s Gold Rate Prediction 2025
Citigroup forecast gold prices is all set to hit $3,000 per ounce due to significant expansion in financial flows.
The report attributes this bullish gold price prediction to the weakening US labour market, disinflation, and the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot.
UBS’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025
UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, citing strong structural support and resilient demand for the yellow metal.
The investment bank now expects gold prices to average $2,365 in 2024, up 8% from previous forecasts, with a year-end target of $2,600. Over the next two years, UBS projects gold prices will exceed $2,800, reflecting a robust outlook despite potential long-term easing.
The second half of 2024 holds a lot of uncertainty, especially given the upcoming US elections. Event risks and the rising concerns about the US fiscal deficit could act as upside catalysts later in the year, according to its analysts.
Moreover, UBS said the upcoming US elections and concerns about the US fiscal deficit could serve as further catalysts for higher gold prices in the second half of 2024.
In addition to gold, UBS has also revised its silver price forecasts. The bank now targets a 2024 year-end price of $36 for silver, with an average of $30.5, reflecting an expected outperformance relative to gold.
Commerzbank’s Gold Prediction 2025
Commerzbank raised the forecast for Gold price to $2,500 per troy ounce at year-end from $2,300 previously.
The three interest rate cuts they expect by the end of the year are likely to be followed by three more in the first half of 2025. This is a total of two interest rate cuts more than they had previously expected.
The bank forecasts the gold price to rise further to $2,600 by the middle of next year. At the end of 2025, the gold price is forecast to fall to $2,550 (previously $2,200) in view of the renewed rise in inflation and the associated speculation of interest rate hikes in the following year.
ING’s Gold Rate Forecast 2025
The Dutch bank believe that the long-awaited Fed rate cut will drive gold to new highs. The US presidential election in November will also continue to add to gold's upward momentum through to the end of the year.
Geopolitics will also remain one of the key factors driving gold prices in their view. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions between the US and China suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to keep adding to their holdings, which should offer support.
They now forecast gold averaging $2,580 in the fourth quarter, resulting in an annual average of $2,388. The upward momentum will continue next year with 2025 gold prices forecast to average $2,700.
TD Securities' Gold Price Prediction 2025
TD Securities forecast is more bullish. The big reason behind this bullish gold forecast is that we're seeing the market increasingly believing that a Fed rate cut is nearer rather than further away.
After hitting 2,500$, TD Securities that gold could hit $2,700 per ounce in the coming quarters, although the gold price could decrease in the coming days following the all-time high.
The average consensus forecast was revised during the month of September to $2,500+ per ounce for 2024. However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. The current gold prices and forecasts for gold should guide us, but the economic landscape always offers surprise turns.
Other Gold price predictions 2024 & 2025 (AI-Based)
Although there is still potential for the price of the precious metal to decline after reaching fresh highs, agencies and AI-based websites are still optimistic that prices would rise towards $2,700 per ounce by the end of this year and as high as $3,000 through 2025.
Wallet Investor - Neutral Gold price prediction 2025
Gold price is forecasted to trade around the 2,600 levels in Q4 2024. The agency is forecasting Gold to reach new highs during 2025 and consolidate between $2,600 and $2,700 levels, with a maximum of $2,747.
Coin Price Forecast - Bullish gold price prediction 2025
By the end of 2024, the gold price forecast is $2,700; and then $3000 by the middle of 2025. Iin the second half of 2025, the price would add $300 and close the year at $3,294.
Long Forecast - Bullish gold price prediction 2025
Gold price prediction for the end of Q4 2024 points to a high close to $2,800. The AI-based website is forecasting gold to trade above the $3,000 price levels during 2025 and close the year at $3,300. This is one of the most bullish gold price forecasts for 2025.
Trading Economics - Neutral to bullish gold rate forecast 2025
Gold is expected to trade at $2,532 USD/t oz. by the end of Q4 2024, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, they forecast gold to trade at $2,623 in 12 months' time.
Gold price prediction for the next 5 years
Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.
What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? See below the forecaster's projections for gold prices in the 5 years approximately.
Gold Price Prediction for the next 5 years from Long Forecast
The Economy Forecast Agency provides a gold price prediction only till December 2028. The 2025 Gold price prediction is a trading range between 2,800 and 3,200. The gold prediction for the next 5 years is $3,300.
Gold price forecast for the next 5 years from Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor offers a gold price forecast for the next 5 years. The closing price of 2025 will be $2,721. 2026, 2027 and 2028 are also nice and pleasant for gold investors, with moderate growth above 3,000. The gold price prediction for the next 5 years is $3,236.
Gold Price Prediction 2025-2030 from Coin Price Forecast
According to the latest long-term forecast, gold price will hit $3,500 within the year of 2026. Gold will rise above $4,000 within the year of 2027, $4,300 in 2027, $4,800 in 2029 and $5,000 by 2030. This is one of the most bullish gold rate forecast for the next 5 and 10 years.
*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. When considering gold price predictions for 2025 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term gold analysis and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their gold forecast wrong.
What moves the price of gold in the future?
Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words:
- In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
- In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion), gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.
If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:
– rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.
– fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011.
When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to:
- Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend.
- Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash.
How has the price of Gold changed over time?
Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make your predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.
Gold Price in 2019
The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.
Gold Price in 2020
The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020.
The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the COVID-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.
Gold Price in 2021
The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India.
There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend.
Gold Price in 2022
Between the end of January 2022 and the 8th of March 2022, gold had a 16% gain, trying to surpass its previous record high of $2075 per ounce set in August 2020 as a result of the conflict in Ukraine that increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion.
Midway through March 2022, the Fed announced its first interest rate increase of the year, and gold started to flex lower. The downward trend in gold prices continued through the summer and into Q3 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickened the pace of rises. In the midst of a dollar rally and rising Treasury yields, gold plummeted 22% from its March highs to September lows at 1,615/oz.
After reaching a so-called technical "triple bottom" in the months of September, October, and November, gold started to rise by 12% by the end of December.
Overall, gold's performance in 2022 was inconsistent when compared to that of other important metals. Copper (-14%) and palladium (-4.2%) were outperformed by the yellow metal, but they lagged behind silver (+4.5%) and platinum (+4.6%).
Gold Price in 2023
May 2023 saw gold prices rise to almost record levels, with a peak at $2,067, a level not seen since March 2022. The ongoing talks over the US debt ceiling served as fuel for the most recent spike. The US economy could run out of cash as early as the beginning of June, according to Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary.
However, prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the FED's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years.
After wild swings, gold showed a strong rebound in Q4 2023 and hit an all-time high, amid geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty.
Gold Price in 2024
he precious metal has been on an impressive bull run since the start of 2024, with its value reaching new record highs multiple times so far this year. This trend began in early March, with gold prices surging to $2,160 per ounce, up 8% compared to the previous record in December 2023.
That record was quickly surpassed by subsequent peaks in April, May, August, and most recently, on September 16, when the price climbed to above $2,600 per ounce. With the latest milestone, gold is up by an astounding 25% since the start of the year.
Conclusion: Is Gold a good investment for 2025 and beyond?
Drawing from these expert insights, they anticipate a slight uptick in gold prices for 2024. The average cost could hover around $2,100 per ounce by year’s end. However, it’s crucial to note that this remains a forecast. Things can change, and there’s always a level of uncertainty.
For potential gold investors, experts at Morgan Stanley recommend some gold in a well-balanced, conservative portfolio to protect against inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies and geopolitical factors. But before you invest in gold, do your homework. Understand the risks and costs of buying and selling gold. And keep a close eye on market trends and conditions.
To sum up: experts can make educated gold forecasts and price predictions, but as with any investment, there's no 100% guarantee.
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Sources:
- https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-outlook-2024
- https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-in-charts.pdf
- https://www.wisdomtree.eu/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/market-outlook/wisdomtree-gold-outlook-q2-2024.pdf
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices
- https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/132-QCPLT